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Forecasting based on time-series data

Journey to find abnormal activities from logging data with periodic patterns

Background

Monitoring and configuring alerts for a new Single Sign-On service was made easy, but detecting abnormal activities using traditional metrics remains challenging. To address this issue, we utilized Facebook Prophet, a time series forecasting library, for a proof-of-concept project. Our project focused on forecasting session information for the new open-source-based Single Sign-On Service.
By using the past 28 days of data, we were able to forecast 3 hours of data. Previously, only linear alarm settings were possible. However, with the forecasting data, we can now set fitting alarm settings for every time.
Without forecasting
With forecasting
Value
Holidays, non-business day
Able to exclude easily
Utilize patterns and weight to make more options to detect and avoid false alarms

Step 1 - Collect Data

Step 2 - Generate Forecasting Data

Step 3 - Visualize and Set alerts

Consideration

References